Here’s your weekly market update. I’ve been heavy on the interpretation so I’d like to take this week to give you some numbers, and then explain what they mean. If you’re hungry for more numbers, just reply back and we’re happy to send more data for you to parse yourself. If you find that boring, just skip the quick takes and go straight to my explanation.
- Active listings: 1501, steady from last week, up from April. Down from “normal” times.
- Pendings (contracts accepted): About 38/day, steady from last week, up from April. Down from “normal” times
- Median pending price: $425,000
- Median spending days on market: 7 days
- Closings: 17/day. Basically steady throughout COVID. Down from “normal” times.
- Median closed price in April: $450,000
- Median closed price in May so far: $465,000
The basic truth of what’s been going on throughout COVID has not changed. Inventory is down, activity is down, and prices are steady. We experienced a simultaneous drop in both supply and demand, which helped keep prices stable. Prices are even UP in April of 2020 from April of 2019, as well as up from January, February and March for 2020.
This is notable only because we’re in a pandemic. This trend is what we’ve seen in Austin for years now. Each year brings higher prices, year over year. And prices rise and fall in a bell-curve type shape that starts lower in the winter, rises to the peak in the late spring or summer, and decline slightly again, to repeat the cycle next year, upward in price overall.
So despite a pandemic, Austin is still seeing somewhat normal price progression. And because inventory is low, days on market are low as well. Less than a week on market is still common. And homes are still selling close to or over asking price.
You may notice, however, that the pending median price is down a bit at $425,000. Pending prices predict closed prices, which means we may see a drop in median sales price overall in May or June. Here’s what I believe is happening.
Homes in the lower price ranges are selling fast, and often with multiple offers. Homes in the higher price ranges are not selling as quickly or as often. This may be because buyers in higher price ranges have money tied up in the stock market, and don’t want to pull it out. It may be because lending in the jumbo loan world is more difficult these days. It may be that fewer people feel confident in buying a million dollar home right now. It’s hard to say. But regardless, I think we may see a small drop in the data in May or June.
However, real estate is highly individual and highly local. So we may find that a buyer in the $400,000 range finds the market to be very competitive while a buyer in the $800,000 range finds they have more leverage. We may see lots of activity in a high price range in one neighborhood, like 78704, but not in another, like Tarrytown, or vice versa. We may have a seller who puts their home up for $1,000,000 as the comps suggest and has a contract immediately, while another seller in another area does the same and gets no action.
So the way to interpret this information is to dive deeper into your particular area, either the area where you own or the area where you want to. If you’d like us to do that for you, we’re happy to.
As always, we’ll follow up with an individual update regarding your particular file if we have one.
If you have any further questions, feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.